Modi’s Rise: Thanks to Anti-Modi Propaganda

Almost all recent opinion polls in India suggest that Narendra Modi, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, is the top contender for the office. Nationally and internationally media describes him as a rightwing hardliner – a poster boy of Hindutva (i.e., religious rightwing politics). This raises several questions: A) Has Indian society lost religious tolerance that it considers electing a Hindutva hardliner who has been allegedly linked to communal riots in Gujarat as a Prime Minister? B) Why is India’s socialists and secularists unable to stop this political shift? and C) Who can stop Modi in the present scenario?

The short answer: For more than a decade Anti-Modi campaign from the left of the political spectrum has fueled Modi’s rise, and his fall is in the hands of his Hindutva followers. Sounds baffling? Let me explain:

Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat during the 2002 communal riots in which two thirds of the victims were Muslims. Obviously, violent episode of such kind would elicit critical response from any civilized society. Genuine critical opinions may vary from negligence and in-action to mishandling at various administrative-levels and failure in maintaining the law and order during riots. However, the opposition led by the Congress party, Delhi-based national media, and innumerous minority-rights advocate NGOs presumed Modi’s culpability in rioting within days. Extreme rightwing groups (e.g., Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajarang Dal) whose many members were later convicted in rioting were off the radar and Modi was made the sole target in media trials. Hyper criticism was widely prevalent across mainstream media houses as Modi was frequently labeled as “Anti-Muslim”, “Hindu Fascist” and “Hitler”. Since 2002, almost every media story on Modi government had a line suggesting his riot links. International media imitated the same ritual. This trend continues till date in sections of media, though to a lesser extent.

Nonstop bashing in national media without any proven charges in the court of law opened up doors for Modi’s rise – first in Gujarat and then beyond. Within religiously polarized Gujarat, Modi succeeded in establishing conditioning in his Hindu voters that his criticism is a propaganda by those with vested interests. Gujarati Congress leaders grasped this voter conditioning after their loss in 2002 state elections. Though Modi has primarily won all successive elections on the developmental agenda, his political opponents in Gujarat have been extra cautious and have restrained from hyper personal criticism, especially on communal issues. In fact, when Tehalka magazine released tapes of Gujarat riot sting operation just few days before the 2007 state elections, many of the Congress party leaders accused it of having conducted the sting at Modi’s behest. However, the Congress leaders in Delhi did not understand the social context. Then Congress chief, Sonia Gandhi’s famous remark of calling Modi a “merchant of death” resulted in further polarization of votes on the religious lines and eventually Congress lost miserably.

Outside of Gujarat, sustained one dimensional depiction of Modi as a Hindu fascist in national and international media had almost convinced most people. However, this strategy backfired and Modi’s stature rose in mainly three phases.

Phase I – Story of Good Governance

Stories of Modi government’s efficient governance started resurfacing within a year and he was named the second best chief minister in India Today magazine’s national survey in 2003. Sporadically their proactive measures in power and infrastructure sectors, global investor summits, and initiatives to create business friendly environment grabbed headlines. By 2011 he was named the best chief minister for seven times in India Today polls. This counter narrative made people more curious to explore who is the real Narendra Modi – a symbol of communal hatred or an efficient administrator.

Phase II – Emergence of Social Media

With the spread of internet and social networking, Modi found a medium to connect directly and to satiate people’s curiosity bypassing mainstream media. Modi has enormous presence on the internet. Unlike his opponents, he has the oratory-skills to connect with the intellectuals as well as the masses and shares all of his speeches on his youtube-channel. A fairly significant section of people, especially the youth, consists of those who do not identify with the camp of religious hardliners and who cannot tolerate misgovernance, inefficiency and rampant corruption. Modi had grasped this voter dilemma long back. For past several years, he has been trying hard to reach out. He talks about governance, economy, technology, environment and developmental issues. It is possible that many of those who had presumed Modi to be a demon saw his human side and bought-in his development centric politics, which is very rare in India. Modi is yet to find a political opponent who presents counter narrative of the developmental vision for India.

Phase III – Acquitted by the Court of Law

In 2013, Ahmedabad Metropolitan Magistrate gave a clean chit to Modi based on the report submitted by the independent inquiry supervised by the Supreme Court. The inquiry has not found prosecutable evidence against him. This development may not have affected opinion of Modi-supporters or his critics. However, a large number of potentially neutral voters now had no concrete rationale for blaming riots on Modi.  

Today pro-Modi camp is massively big. It covers not only Hindu hardliners, but also liberals who buy-in Modi’s claims of administrative acumen. Modi has a huge following among the youth, possibly across religious lines. So far, he has maintained a fine balance in keeping his right-wing followers and liberal young fans under the same umbrella. However, this balancing-act may get more difficult if the hardliners push their agenda publicly. Educated youth may find it difficult to sit in the same camp with religious hardliners, who tend to impose their world-view on others. Nonetheless, it is difficult to say if the hardliners are destroying Modi’s potential vote bank of liberal youth across religious lines. In total, the fault lines within the pro-Modi camp is the only big threat which can shatter Modi’s plan. 

Now that there is a real possibility that Modi will be the next prime minister of India, most of the anti-Modi liberals and leftists are crying foul. One wonders what they were doing when their colleagues were presenting anti-Modi propaganda, and not complete factual picture, on the mainstream media for more than a decade. Did they not anticipate what the consequences would be if their story did not stand the test of time? Anti-Modi camp is shrinking and there is no justification provided for the presentation of unidimensional one-sided picture with selective facts for so long. Religious bigotry and rioting is a social malice across India. Why has there been a sustained campaign against only one politician? Unfortunately, some of the media houses and senior reporters have shamelessly changed sides to orient themselves with the winds of change.

In all this, genuine critics of Modi’s politics and governance have emerged as the biggest losers. Any criticism of Modi or his administration is labeled as a Congressi-propaganda by rapidly expanding pro-Modi camp. The political discourse breaks down right away as there is a predetermined position and no openness to consider the counter narrative.

Perhaps the complete truth of Godhra incident and the following riots will never come out. But, we can hope that the liberals and leftists in India will learn a lesson of sticking to the facts. They should not forget their own contribution to Modi’s rise. 

I welcome your comments...

India Election 2014: Bird’s Eye View

The political arena is heating up in India as the next general election is less than five months away. The performance of the current ruling coalition government, Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has been far below expectation. There is a wide-spread disappointment with the Congress party as reflected by numerous media-surveys and recent state-election results. The government has been struck with policy paralyses, indecisiveness, and numerous large scale corruption charges. There is a general sense that the Congress party has serious credibility issues and has lost touch with the people.  

            National politics in India primarily has three coalition groups: Congress led UPA; BJP led NDA (National Democratic Alliance); and the third front consisting of various regional parties unwilling to sit with either Congress or BJP. There can be a fourth front led by the left parties and other regional parties who find it difficult to sit with either of the first three coalition groups; but this group is unlikely to have significant number as per the current trend. The third front does not have a clear leader and projects a politically unstable formation. Also, the third front is highly unlikely to be in position to form a government without support from Congress or BJP. Therefore, given Congress’ dire state, theoretically, it should have been easy for the main opposition party, the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), to claim for a clear mandate in the upcoming elections. All BJP had to do was to find someone who projected three traits: clear policy-driven governance, decisiveness, and non-corrupt image. However, BJP went ahead an extra-mile and projected Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate who not only projected those three traits but also brought-in the baggage of 2002 communal riots. Though no court has found any direct role of Mr. Modi in the rioting, his opponents have targeted him for more than a decade now as he served as the chief minister during riots in which two-thirds of the victims were Muslims in a Hindu Majority state. In addition, BJP’s claim as a party of incorruptible has limited takers as many of its politicians have been charged with big corruption scandals. This created a political vacuum for a party with absolute incorruptible and secular credentials. AAP (Aam Aadmi Party or the common men party) is exactly addressing this gap.

AAP was formed last year by a group of anti-corruption activists led by Arvind Kejriwal. In its political debut, it triumphed and formed a government in Delhi. Though the party is in nascent stage, it hopes to make the most of the political vacuum discussed above. Both media and established political players hyperbolize and sensationalize AAP’s positives and negatives. In Delhi, Congress has given outside support to AAP; and is happy to shoot at BJP from AAP’s shoulder with election 2014 in sight. While it is a real possibility that AAP cuts down a few vital BJP seats making government formation an uphill task for Modi, it poses a greater threat for the Congress. Though AAP consists of individuals with varied world-views, its overall outlook seems center-left with elements of direct democracy governance-model.  Ideologically, there is little difference between AAP and Congress. Apart from its legacy, the Congress has little to offer what the AAP cannot. But AAP can offer non-corrupt, non-dynastic and non-nepotistic profile which the Congress cannot. AAP has already influenced the national political discourse. There is a clear swing in favor of anti-corruption and more transparency in governance at various levels. Many politicians across parties have adapted to austerity. Nonetheless, AAP has a long way to go before it actually challenges any of the established parties at the center. Most importantly, it has to develop party-cadre at grassroots across the nation, and demonstrate acumen of governance and ability to work with other parties. If it succeeds nationally, it will, at best, be able to challenge the BJP and substitute the Congress in the long run.

BJP is primarily banking on the Modi-wave. AAP has certainly made things difficult, but Modi’s political acuteness is still unparalleled. Modi’s words and actions set issues and agenda for national political debates. A fairly significant section of people, especially the youth, consists of those who do not identify with the camp of religious hardliners and who cannot tolerate misgovernance, inefficiency and rampant corruption. It seems that Modi had grasped this voter dilemma long back. For past few years, he has been trying hard to reach out. He talks about governance, economy, technology, environment and developmental issues. However, his biggest challenge is to control his right-wing followers from ruining his efforts to accommodate potential voters who buy his governance and “India First” credentials [Note: Modi defines secularism as India First. It is a rhetoric, but the basic idea is that the policies should be in interest of all Indians and not just certain sections of caste/religion]. It is difficult to say if Modi’s right-wing hardliners are destroying his potential vote bank of liberal youth across religious lines, rather than consolidating his Hindu vote-bank. Educated youth may find it difficult to sit in the same camp with religious hardliners, who tend to impose their world-view on others. It will be interesting to see how Modi performs this balancing-act in coming days.

Whether the Indians create BJP’s Modi-wave, AAP’s political revolution, or maintain Congress’ grand-old Nehru-Gandhi dynasty rule, only time will tell. We will have to wait, but not too long.  

Gujarat Elections II: Incumbent Modi may retain Power, Thanks to his Opponents

Note: A modified version of this article is published in Fair Observer, international magazine: Read here 

Courtesy: Modi's Blog

Usually, elections in India’s western state of Gujarat would get headlines in national media for only a couple of days and would have little relevance to the national politics. However, things have changed in recent elections. Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has rose to great political heights and is considered a strong prime ministerial candidate for the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. As a result, the upcoming Gujarat polls are getting unprecedented coverage in national and international media.  

Modi’s rise has much to do with his projection of mutually incompatible personality-traits. Over these years, he has succeeded in polarizing masses into two camps –Pro-Modi or Anti-Modi, not just in Gujarat but in India as well. For ‘pro’ camp, Modi is a rockstar politician, a future prime minister, a reincarnation of Sardar Patel who integrated India; the one who will turn Ahmedabad into Singapore, Surat into Hong Kong, Katch into Dubai, and Dholera into New York, keeping the soul subtly Gujarati. On the other hand, the Anti-Modi camp considers Modi an arrogant vindictive capitalist autocrat who wants to control everything by repressing all others of equal or higher competence and a reincarnation of Hitler with Hindu identity and anti-Muslim agenda. The anti-Modi perception mainly stems from his alleged in-action during post-Godhra riots; while the pro-Modi perception is due to his administration’s governance and economic development in state.

The rise of Modi’s popularity can partly be attributed to the nonstop negative reporting on him for many years in national media. Apparently, anti-Modi camp has had louder voice at least in Delhi-based English media. However, as years passed, Gujarat’s economy and infrastructure grew steadily. Modi administration begged occasional headlines for its good governance. In addition, no allegations against Modi have been proved in the court of law so far. It is obvious for the common citizens to be curious about Modi, as despite loud anti-Modi buzz in the media there was no charge-sheet filed against him and simultaneously his government received accolades nationally and internationally. Then Modi’s marketing genius came into the play. With the spread of internet and social networking, Modi found a medium for connecting directly with people. Unlike his opponents, he has the oratory-skills to connect with the intellectuals as well as the masses and shares all of his speeches on his youtube-channel. When he addresses the investor-summit, he talks about state’s business friendly policies and infrastructural facilities; while addressing farmers, he talks about irrigation techniques, soil-analysis and water preservation – in-short, Modi does his homework well. It is possible that many of those who had only presumed Modi to be a demon saw his human side and were sold by seeing a politician talking about developmental vision, which is very rare in India. In total, Modi was infamous earlier, but he managed to convert that into his glory through bringing in the discourse of “development”. By all accounts, Modi is the most followed Indian politician on the internet.

However, just as fixation on “anti-Modi” sentiments was problematic, branding of a politician by attributing entire state’s success-story to him is unfortunate. Gujarat BJP and the pro-Modi mob have created a “Modi” brand of politics, which links every achievement of Gujarat to Modi, the poster man. Even when there is no election, Modi-posters are everywhere: on hoardings across cities, on government websites and reports, and even on government distributed school-begs of elementary children. It is especially interesting because the BJP boasts of its Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) roots where the team-spirit is central phenomenon. But, in Gujarat, BJP itself has turned into a person-centered party, while it continues to criticize the Congress for being family-centered at the national level. In addition, over the years most of the senior BJP members have been either kicked out or have resigned from the party on their own. This, in a way reflects Modi’s intolerance for a second voice in his party, at least, in Gujarat.

Many of the BJP rebels, including ex-Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, have formed a new party- Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). This party hopes to beg some traditionally BJP strongholds especially in the region of Saurashtra. Its campaign is anti-Modi for obvious reasons, but they do not provide alternate vision for Gujarat’s progress.

The largest opposition party, the Congress is in reactive mode. Whatever Modi does, the Congress reacts to it. There is no proactive thinking or action. Moreover, it is repeatedly shooting self-goals by its plagiarized ad-campaigns, using abusive language and simply trying to catch up with BJP. Instead of taking on Modi administration’s policy decisions and tabling better plans, Congress still lives in historic era where politicians would promise “free-stuff” to illiterate masses. Only difference is that now it is offering free laptops to the youth. To add to their pain, the congress led central government is performing miserably and is perceived to be the most corrupt Indian government to date. In conclusion, the Congress has serious problems with credibility, leadership and (lack of) vision.

It is not that Modi is invincible. His government has many flaws. Gujarat is far from developed. There are serious problems pertaining to public-health, education, and food security, issues that really matter to the people. Though Modi has published a book on Gujarat’s efforts to tackle global warming, it is difficult to breath in cities during rush hours because of immense air-pollution. Modi boasts of 24X7 uninterrupted power supply to the entire state, but in reality even in the second biggest city Surat receives power cuts at least 3-4times/week by Gujarat Electricity Board (GEB). In addition, there are serious corruption charges on Modi administration whether it be fisheries scam, Adani land scam or oil and gas scam. If the opposition can get its act together, give a plan of action for producing inclusive growth-rate of 10%, generate employment and create quality educational institutions at every-level, bring-in investment and make agriculture more productive, the people will give serious consideration to it. The Gujaratis would be happy to vote Modi out, if they have a better alternate. In present scenario, there is no other politician in Gujarat who is at par with Modi. His opposition is out of touch with the ground realities. There are clear indicators suggesting that 54% of voters are youth, who find very little resonance with either Congress or GPP.

Modi is a shrewd politician. He is increasingly using Hindi rather than Gujarati, indicating that he is definitely looking beyond Gujarat. While others remain silent spectators attempting to decode him, Modi has already begun his national campaign for 2014, it seems. Even if he falls, he knows how to use it to gain sympathies of masses. This election is definitely going to affect political permutations and combinations at the center.   

Gujarat Election- 2012 Special

I am unlikely to cast my vote in this upcoming state election, since I am out of the country. But, I have been keen observer of Gujarat; and in this post I’d like to present some ideas to the fellow Gujarati voters. 

Image Courtesy: http://www.mapsofindia.com/gujarat/

When I see Gujarat today, I find mainly two types of people: 1) Political loyalists, and 2) People who don’t give a s#!t to politics.  

Political loyalists are the one who have jumped in the camps of one or the other political party (e.g., BJP, Congress, or GPP etc). Caution- I’m talking about common voters and not party workers. These loyalists look at all issues very superficially and dichotomize everything in ‘us and them’. Unfortunately, the past decade has been such that almost entire Gujarat has turned into Political loyalist, mainly because of the severe public castigation and praise of Narendra Modi, the chief minister. This guy has completely polarized my Gujarat into two camps –Pro-Modi or Anti-Modi. Whatever the issue is, the Pro-Modi camp only has praise for the Modi-administration, and the Anti-Modi camp –criticism. In this constant battle over the past decade, the intellect and rationality have mostly remained absent from the political discourse.

For pro people, Modi is a rockstar politician, a future prime minister, a super hero, a reincarnation of Sardar Patel or possibly Vivekanand; the one who will turn Ahmedabad into Singapore, Surat into Hong Kong, Katch into Dubai, Dholera into New York, and so on (of course, keeping the soul subtly Gujarati). On the other hand, the Anti-Modi camp considers Modi an arrogant vindictive capitalist autocrat who wants to control everything brutally repressing all others of equal or higher competence, who is a Saffron-Nazi, a reincarnation of Hitler with Hindu identity and anti-Muslim agenda. (In another article, I have explained the reason for this polarization. To read Click here.)

It’s obvious that both these perceptions are incompatible – how can a person be both - Patel and Hitler!!! If we go deeper, it’s not so difficult to understand: ‘Though the reality is one, it has many dimensions’. Accordingly, though Modi is one, his persona has many dimensions. The problem arises and the lack of understanding becomes explicit when people pick and chose a few dimensions and present that as an entirety of Modi or his administrations. Projecting Modi or his administration as either extreme standpoint is just not fair to Modi, his administration, his opposition, or to the people of Gujarat.

It is worthy of mention that political loyalty to Congress has diminished in Gujarat. Whatever support Congress harnesses, it mainly stems from Anti-Modi sentiments. Those who are unable to find any resonance with Congress are now turning to the newly formed Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP), formed by ex-BJP leaders.

The other type of voters, people who don’t give a s#!t to politics, may not even bother voting. Enough has been said and written by many to engage people in political discourse constructively. I have only one question for these “I hate politics" people: What makes you think you deserve to live in a democracy???  

So, what kind of voters do we need?

Today we need voters, who support parties based on issues. For example, I totally support Modi’s Gunotsav program for accountability in public education. Though there are areas of improvement (e.g., raw data-files must be public), but it’s much better than nothing. However, I find Modi’s views on Pakistan very amusing, especially his speech on “Mia Musharraf”. I also don’t like that BJP has turned into one man show in Gujarat. In his speeches Modi gives credit to the “Team”. What is this “Team”? Faces in the team are never revealed; and in the end all credit is granted to Modi, the poster-man.

Let’s look at the candidates in our polling station. Let’s check their criminal background, and the assets that they have. It’s a slap on the face of the voters’ prudence when a politician with criminal charges, as in the case of Amit Shah of BJP, wants to fight election and is sure of victory. Let’s force politicians to reveal their concrete plan of action for the next five years (I highly doubt if they prepare any plans, but at least they’ll think momentarily). Finally, let’s ask politicians how they plan to balance the budget. Increasing debt is not only foolish, but is criminal in nature for future generations. And last but not the least, let’s question politicians at every possible forum. Gujarat is the economic engine of India. Now is the time, we should lead India with political intellect. Perhaps something greater will unfold in the 2014 Loksabha elections.

Can BJP replace Congress?

It is no secret anymore. People of India are very frustrated by the UPA (United Progressive Alliance), and especially, the Congress party. By all accounts, the present central government of India is perceived to the most corrupt government of all time. In addition, the country desperately needs urgent proactive measures in almost all sectors, whether it is human resource development, public health-care, agriculture, infrastructure development, defense & internal security, or economy in-general. The economic growth projections are falling; and it is said that we’d be lucky to touch 6.5% -7% by end of 2012; whereas the planning commission desires growth-rate of 10% sustained throughout 2012-2017 for the 12th plan (more info: http://planningcommission.gov.in/plans/planrel/12appdrft/appraoch_12plan.pdf). How the heck are you going to do that and provide funding for all ambitious projects? Making the things worse, the Congress-led government is simply dysfunctional... The prime minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, and the UPA chair-person, Ms. Sonia Gandhi, who are directly accountable for the mess, are hiding away from the media for years now [in fact, I highly doubt if the main-stream media would even take up issues that upset them, something which they have never done so far]. And the highly irritating Congress spokesmen (and women) who appear almost every day on talk shows (rather verbal WWE) have absolutely no listening skills, and foolishly keep pointing fingers elsewhere saying –“Ok… we (Congress-ies) all are dogs; but what about others being donkeys and calling themselves lions???”   
   
Amidst this grim scenario of the present Government of India, the thing that disheartens me more is how BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is acting. In fact it does not act, it only reacts. The only other pragmatic option that any Indian has for replacing Congress at center is the BJP. But the party does not have its basics right. It simply lacks a strong leader at center. Its standard response is –“We all are lions; and after hunting those dogs (in elections) we shall decide the king”. 


My response to them: 
Arre bhai, haven’t you heard that story? 
A group of lions led by none 
gets defeated by the group of dogs led by one. 


The leadership matters. The reason why you lost last election is mainly because of your poor prime ministerial candidate choice, Mr. Advani. With all due respect, that person simply does not have the charisma of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Some people are suggesting Narendra Modi’s name. Frankly, if India has a system of primary elections (within party) for BJP’s prime ministerial candidacy like the US has for president-ship, quite undoubtedly, Modi would win it (as pointed out by Swapan Dasgupta). However, keeping in mind India’s diversity, international relations, and how Modi is perceived nationwide, that maybe an extremely fatal step. The Congress’ campaign will be completely negative and the entire liberal-class will join-in naming him “Hitler” & “Merchant of death”; and your total energy will be lost into defending him rather than targeting Congress for its mis-governance and massive corruptions. Reserve him for the future though, as public perceptions may change over time. For the present, how about someone like Sushma Swaraj, or Arun Jaitley? Ms. Swaraj definitely has a public appeal; and her assertiveness will suit to your hard-liner supporters as well. Also, India hasn’t had a female prime minister for a few decades now. On the other hand, Mr. Jaitley is well known for his intellectual sharpness. Though he has not fought any Lok Sabha election, but what’s wrong with a prime minister from Rajya Sabha? If any of these two take a complete charge of the party, and if entire BJP carry out coherent attack on the government, we may very well see early elections, may be within an year. 


Another big fault-line in BJP is the mismatch between ideology and actions. Ideologically, it claims to be a nationalistic, progressive, and pro-market (and minimum government interference) party. However, it behaves as an opportunistic one. A few examples:
• When Vajpayee was in power, the relations with the US significantly improved despite the nuclear tests. It would have been his government’s top priority to convince the Americans that India is ready for civil nuclear deal. However, when BJP set in opposition, it vehemently opposed the deal.
• Fact that a party which talks about including private players and opening up markets can oppose opening up of retail sector is simply not digestible.
• Again in Vajpayee era, Indo-Pak relations improved dramatically despite the Kargil war and attacks on parliament. But, now BJP completely opposes even to have dialogs with Pakistan. Why this mood-swing?   


Despite innumerous loopholes the government is surviving only because the opposition is not addressing its inner fault-lines. At state level, BJP led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) governments are doing a much better job whether it is in Gujarat, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh or Karnataka (more info: http://www.thesundayindian.com/en/story/NDA-states-better-than-Cong-led-states/254/29560/) as compared to congress-led states. However, if BJP wants to secure its position at national level, it has to fix its house in order first. It seems that BJP has realized that inclusive developmental politics is the key. No nonsense issues like Temple & Mosque anymore, please... Let’s focus on Human Development Index and Knowledge Development Index. If you still want to argue, let’s educate all, improve health of all, and ameliorate everyone’s life-style, first, and then we can continue arguments like the developed nations do.