Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Gujarat Elections II: Incumbent Modi may retain Power, Thanks to his Opponents

Note: A modified version of this article is published in Fair Observer, international magazine: Read here 

Courtesy: Modi's Blog
Usually, elections in India’s western state of Gujarat would get headlines in national media for only a couple of days and would have little relevance to the national politics. However, things have changed in recent elections. Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has rose to great political heights and is considered a strong prime ministerial candidate for the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. As a result, the upcoming Gujarat polls are getting unprecedented coverage in national and international media.  

Modi’s rise has much to do with his projection of mutually incompatible personality-traits. Over these years, he has succeeded in polarizing masses into two camps –Pro-Modi or Anti-Modi, not just in Gujarat but in India as well. For ‘pro’ camp, Modi is a rockstar politician, a future prime minister, a reincarnation of Sardar Patel who integrated India; the one who will turn Ahmedabad into Singapore, Surat into Hong Kong, Katch into Dubai, and Dholera into New York, keeping the soul subtly Gujarati. On the other hand, the Anti-Modi camp considers Modi an arrogant vindictive capitalist autocrat who wants to control everything by repressing all others of equal or higher competence and a reincarnation of Hitler with Hindu identity and anti-Muslim agenda. The anti-Modi perception mainly stems from his alleged in-action during post-Godhra riots; while the pro-Modi perception is due to his administration’s governance and economic development in state.

The rise of Modi’s popularity can partly be attributed to the nonstop negative reporting on him for many years in national media. Apparently, anti-Modi camp has had louder voice at least in Delhi-based English media. However, as years passed, Gujarat’s economy and infrastructure grew steadily. Modi administration begged occasional headlines for its good governance. In addition, no allegations against Modi have been proved in the court of law so far. It is obvious for the common citizens to be curious about Modi, as despite loud anti-Modi buzz in the media there was no charge-sheet filed against him and simultaneously his government received accolades nationally and internationally. Then Modi’s marketing genius came into the play. With the spread of internet and social networking, Modi found a medium for connecting directly with people. Unlike his opponents, he has the oratory-skills to connect with the intellectuals as well as the masses and shares all of his speeches on his youtube-channel. When he addresses the investor-summit, he talks about state’s business friendly policies and infrastructural facilities; while addressing farmers, he talks about irrigation techniques, soil-analysis and water preservation – in-short, Modi does his homework well. It is possible that many of those who had only presumed Modi to be a demon saw his human side and were sold by seeing a politician talking about developmental vision, which is very rare in India. In total, Modi was infamous earlier, but he managed to convert that into his glory through bringing in the discourse of “development”. By all accounts, Modi is the most followed Indian politician on the internet.

However, just as fixation on “anti-Modi” sentiments was problematic, branding of a politician by attributing entire state’s success-story to him is unfortunate. Gujarat BJP and the pro-Modi mob have created a “Modi” brand of politics, which links every achievement of Gujarat to Modi, the poster man. Even when there is no election, Modi-posters are everywhere: on hoardings across cities, on government websites and reports, and even on government distributed school-begs of elementary children. It is especially interesting because the BJP boasts of its Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) roots where the team-spirit is central phenomenon. But, in Gujarat, BJP itself has turned into a person-centered party, while it continues to criticize the Congress for being family-centered at the national level. In addition, over the years most of the senior BJP members have been either kicked out or have resigned from the party on their own. This, in a way reflects Modi’s intolerance for a second voice in his party, at least, in Gujarat.

Many of the BJP rebels, including ex-Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, have formed a new party- Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). This party hopes to beg some traditionally BJP strongholds especially in the region of Saurashtra. Its campaign is anti-Modi for obvious reasons, but they do not provide alternate vision for Gujarat’s progress.

The largest opposition party, the Congress is in reactive mode. Whatever Modi does, the Congress reacts to it. There is no proactive thinking or action. Moreover, it is repeatedly shooting self-goals by its plagiarized ad-campaigns, using abusive language and simply trying to catch up with BJP. Instead of taking on Modi administration’s policy decisions and tabling better plans, Congress still lives in historic era where politicians would promise “free-stuff” to illiterate masses. Only difference is that now it is offering free laptops to the youth. To add to their pain, the congress led central government is performing miserably and is perceived to be the most corrupt Indian government to date. In conclusion, the Congress has serious problems with credibility, leadership and (lack of) vision.

It is not that Modi is invincible. His government has many flaws. Gujarat is far from developed. There are serious problems pertaining to public-health, education, and food security, issues that really matter to the people. Though Modi has published a book on Gujarat’s efforts to tackle global warming, it is difficult to breath in cities during rush hours because of immense air-pollution. Modi boasts of 24X7 uninterrupted power supply to the entire state, but in reality even in the second biggest city Surat receives power cuts at least 3-4times/week by Gujarat Electricity Board (GEB). In addition, there are serious corruption charges on Modi administration whether it be fisheries scam, Adani land scam or oil and gas scam. If the opposition can get its act together, give a plan of action for producing inclusive growth-rate of 10%, generate employment and create quality educational institutions at every-level, bring-in investment and make agriculture more productive, the people will give serious consideration to it. The Gujaratis would be happy to vote Modi out, if they have a better alternate. In present scenario, there is no other politician in Gujarat who is at par with Modi. His opposition is out of touch with the ground realities. There are clear indicators suggesting that 54% of voters are youth, who find very little resonance with either Congress or GPP.

Modi is a shrewd politician. He is increasingly using Hindi rather than Gujarati, indicating that he is definitely looking beyond Gujarat. While others remain silent spectators attempting to decode him, Modi has already begun his national campaign for 2014, it seems. Even if he falls, he knows how to use it to gain sympathies of masses. This election is definitely going to affect political permutations and combinations at the center.