The political arena is heating up in India as the next general election is less than five months away. The performance of the current ruling coalition government, Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has been far below expectation. There is a wide-spread disappointment with the Congress party as reflected by numerous media-surveys and recent state-election results. The government has been struck with policy paralyses, indecisiveness, and numerous large scale corruption charges. There is a general sense that the Congress party has serious credibility issues and has lost touch with the people.
National
politics in India primarily has three coalition groups: Congress led UPA; BJP
led NDA (National Democratic Alliance); and the third front consisting of various
regional parties unwilling to sit with either Congress or BJP. There can be a
fourth front led by the left parties and other regional parties who find it
difficult to sit with either of the first three coalition groups; but this
group is unlikely to have significant number as per the current trend. The
third front does not have a clear leader and projects a politically unstable
formation. Also, the third front is highly unlikely to be in position to form a
government without support from Congress or BJP. Therefore, given Congress’
dire state, theoretically, it should have been easy for the main opposition
party, the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), to claim for a clear mandate in the
upcoming elections. All BJP had to do was to find someone who projected three
traits: clear policy-driven governance, decisiveness, and non-corrupt image.
However, BJP went ahead an extra-mile and projected Narendra Modi as its prime
ministerial candidate who not only projected those three traits but also
brought-in the baggage of 2002 communal riots. Though no court has found any
direct role of Mr. Modi in the rioting, his opponents have targeted him for
more than a decade now as he served as the chief minister during riots in which
two-thirds of the victims were Muslims in a Hindu Majority state. In addition,
BJP’s claim as a party of incorruptible has limited takers as many of its
politicians have been charged with big corruption scandals. This created a
political vacuum for a party with absolute incorruptible and secular
credentials. AAP (Aam Aadmi Party or the common men party) is exactly
addressing this gap.
AAP was formed last
year by a group of anti-corruption activists led by Arvind Kejriwal. In its
political debut, it triumphed and formed a government in Delhi. Though the
party is in nascent stage, it hopes to make the most of the political vacuum
discussed above. Both media and established political players hyperbolize and
sensationalize AAP’s positives and negatives. In Delhi, Congress has given
outside support to AAP; and is happy to shoot at BJP from AAP’s shoulder with
election 2014 in sight. While it is a real possibility that AAP cuts down a few
vital BJP seats making government formation an uphill task for Modi, it poses a
greater threat for the Congress. Though AAP consists of individuals with varied
world-views, its overall outlook seems center-left with elements of direct
democracy governance-model.
Ideologically, there is little difference between AAP and Congress.
Apart from its legacy, the Congress has little to offer what the AAP cannot.
But AAP can offer non-corrupt, non-dynastic and non-nepotistic profile which
the Congress cannot. AAP has already influenced the national political
discourse. There is a clear swing in favor of anti-corruption and more
transparency in governance at various levels. Many politicians across parties
have adapted to austerity. Nonetheless, AAP has a long way to go before it
actually challenges any of the established parties at the center. Most
importantly, it has to develop party-cadre at grassroots across the nation, and
demonstrate acumen of governance and ability to work with other parties. If it
succeeds nationally, it will, at best, be able to challenge the BJP and
substitute the Congress in the long run.
BJP is primarily
banking on the Modi-wave. AAP has certainly made things difficult, but Modi’s
political acuteness is still unparalleled. Modi’s words and actions set issues
and agenda for national political debates. A fairly significant section of
people, especially the youth, consists of those who do not identify with the
camp of religious hardliners and who cannot tolerate misgovernance,
inefficiency and rampant corruption. It seems that Modi had grasped this voter dilemma
long back. For past few years, he has been trying hard to reach out. He talks
about governance, economy, technology, environment and developmental issues.
However, his biggest challenge is to control his right-wing followers from
ruining his efforts to accommodate potential voters who buy his governance and
“India First” credentials [Note: Modi defines secularism as India First. It is
a rhetoric, but the basic idea is that the policies should be in interest of
all Indians and not just certain sections of caste/religion]. It is difficult
to say if Modi’s right-wing hardliners are destroying his potential vote bank
of liberal youth across religious lines, rather than consolidating his Hindu
vote-bank. Educated youth may find it difficult to sit in the same camp with
religious hardliners, who tend to impose their world-view on others. It will be
interesting to see how Modi performs this balancing-act in coming days.
Whether the Indians
create BJP’s Modi-wave, AAP’s political revolution, or maintain Congress’
grand-old Nehru-Gandhi dynasty rule, only time will tell. We will have to wait,
but not too long.
