India Election 2014: Bird’s Eye View

The political arena is heating up in India as the next general election is less than five months away. The performance of the current ruling coalition government, Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has been far below expectation. There is a wide-spread disappointment with the Congress party as reflected by numerous media-surveys and recent state-election results. The government has been struck with policy paralyses, indecisiveness, and numerous large scale corruption charges. There is a general sense that the Congress party has serious credibility issues and has lost touch with the people.  

            National politics in India primarily has three coalition groups: Congress led UPA; BJP led NDA (National Democratic Alliance); and the third front consisting of various regional parties unwilling to sit with either Congress or BJP. There can be a fourth front led by the left parties and other regional parties who find it difficult to sit with either of the first three coalition groups; but this group is unlikely to have significant number as per the current trend. The third front does not have a clear leader and projects a politically unstable formation. Also, the third front is highly unlikely to be in position to form a government without support from Congress or BJP. Therefore, given Congress’ dire state, theoretically, it should have been easy for the main opposition party, the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), to claim for a clear mandate in the upcoming elections. All BJP had to do was to find someone who projected three traits: clear policy-driven governance, decisiveness, and non-corrupt image. However, BJP went ahead an extra-mile and projected Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate who not only projected those three traits but also brought-in the baggage of 2002 communal riots. Though no court has found any direct role of Mr. Modi in the rioting, his opponents have targeted him for more than a decade now as he served as the chief minister during riots in which two-thirds of the victims were Muslims in a Hindu Majority state. In addition, BJP’s claim as a party of incorruptible has limited takers as many of its politicians have been charged with big corruption scandals. This created a political vacuum for a party with absolute incorruptible and secular credentials. AAP (Aam Aadmi Party or the common men party) is exactly addressing this gap.

AAP was formed last year by a group of anti-corruption activists led by Arvind Kejriwal. In its political debut, it triumphed and formed a government in Delhi. Though the party is in nascent stage, it hopes to make the most of the political vacuum discussed above. Both media and established political players hyperbolize and sensationalize AAP’s positives and negatives. In Delhi, Congress has given outside support to AAP; and is happy to shoot at BJP from AAP’s shoulder with election 2014 in sight. While it is a real possibility that AAP cuts down a few vital BJP seats making government formation an uphill task for Modi, it poses a greater threat for the Congress. Though AAP consists of individuals with varied world-views, its overall outlook seems center-left with elements of direct democracy governance-model.  Ideologically, there is little difference between AAP and Congress. Apart from its legacy, the Congress has little to offer what the AAP cannot. But AAP can offer non-corrupt, non-dynastic and non-nepotistic profile which the Congress cannot. AAP has already influenced the national political discourse. There is a clear swing in favor of anti-corruption and more transparency in governance at various levels. Many politicians across parties have adapted to austerity. Nonetheless, AAP has a long way to go before it actually challenges any of the established parties at the center. Most importantly, it has to develop party-cadre at grassroots across the nation, and demonstrate acumen of governance and ability to work with other parties. If it succeeds nationally, it will, at best, be able to challenge the BJP and substitute the Congress in the long run.

BJP is primarily banking on the Modi-wave. AAP has certainly made things difficult, but Modi’s political acuteness is still unparalleled. Modi’s words and actions set issues and agenda for national political debates. A fairly significant section of people, especially the youth, consists of those who do not identify with the camp of religious hardliners and who cannot tolerate misgovernance, inefficiency and rampant corruption. It seems that Modi had grasped this voter dilemma long back. For past few years, he has been trying hard to reach out. He talks about governance, economy, technology, environment and developmental issues. However, his biggest challenge is to control his right-wing followers from ruining his efforts to accommodate potential voters who buy his governance and “India First” credentials [Note: Modi defines secularism as India First. It is a rhetoric, but the basic idea is that the policies should be in interest of all Indians and not just certain sections of caste/religion]. It is difficult to say if Modi’s right-wing hardliners are destroying his potential vote bank of liberal youth across religious lines, rather than consolidating his Hindu vote-bank. Educated youth may find it difficult to sit in the same camp with religious hardliners, who tend to impose their world-view on others. It will be interesting to see how Modi performs this balancing-act in coming days.

Whether the Indians create BJP’s Modi-wave, AAP’s political revolution, or maintain Congress’ grand-old Nehru-Gandhi dynasty rule, only time will tell. We will have to wait, but not too long.