Almost
all recent opinion polls in India suggest that Narendra Modi, BJP’s prime
ministerial candidate, is the top contender for the office. Nationally and
internationally media describes him as a rightwing hardliner – a poster boy of Hindutva (i.e., religious rightwing
politics). This raises several questions: A) Has Indian society lost religious tolerance
that it considers electing a Hindutva hardliner who has been allegedly linked
to communal riots in Gujarat as a Prime Minister? B) Why is India’s socialists
and secularists unable to stop this political shift? and C) Who can stop Modi
in the present scenario?
The
short answer: For more than a decade Anti-Modi campaign from the left of the
political spectrum has fueled Modi’s rise, and his fall is in the hands of his
Hindutva followers. Sounds baffling? Let me explain:
Modi
was the Chief Minister of Gujarat during the 2002 communal riots in which two
thirds of the victims were Muslims. Obviously, violent episode of such kind
would elicit critical response from any civilized society. Genuine critical
opinions may vary from negligence and in-action to mishandling at various administrative-levels
and failure in maintaining the law and order during riots. However, the
opposition led by the Congress party, Delhi-based national media, and
innumerous minority-rights advocate NGOs presumed Modi’s culpability in rioting
within days. Extreme rightwing groups (e.g., Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajarang
Dal) whose many members were later convicted in rioting were off the radar and
Modi was made the sole target in media trials. Hyper criticism was widely
prevalent across mainstream media houses as Modi was frequently labeled as
“Anti-Muslim”, “Hindu Fascist” and “Hitler”. Since 2002, almost every media story
on Modi government had a line suggesting his riot links. International media
imitated the same ritual. This trend continues till date in sections of media,
though to a lesser extent.
Nonstop
bashing in national media without any proven charges in the court of law opened
up doors for Modi’s rise – first in Gujarat and then beyond. Within religiously
polarized Gujarat, Modi succeeded in establishing conditioning in his Hindu
voters that his criticism is a propaganda by those with vested interests.
Gujarati Congress leaders grasped this voter conditioning after their loss in
2002 state elections. Though Modi has primarily won all successive elections on
the developmental agenda, his political opponents in Gujarat have been extra
cautious and have restrained from hyper personal criticism, especially on
communal issues. In fact, when Tehalka magazine released tapes of Gujarat riot
sting operation just few days before the 2007 state elections, many of the Congress
party leaders accused it of having conducted the sting at Modi’s behest. However, the Congress leaders in Delhi did not
understand the social context. Then Congress chief, Sonia Gandhi’s famous
remark of calling Modi a “merchant of death” resulted in further polarization
of votes on the religious lines and eventually Congress lost miserably.
Outside
of Gujarat, sustained one dimensional depiction of Modi as a Hindu fascist in national
and international media had almost convinced most people. However, this
strategy backfired and Modi’s stature rose in mainly three phases.
Phase
I – Story of Good Governance
Stories
of Modi government’s efficient governance started resurfacing within a year and
he was named the second best chief minister in India Today magazine’s national survey in 2003. Sporadically their proactive measures in power and
infrastructure sectors, global investor summits, and initiatives to create
business friendly environment grabbed headlines. By 2011 he was named the best
chief minister for seven times in India Today polls. This counter narrative
made people more curious to explore who is the real Narendra Modi – a symbol of
communal hatred or an efficient administrator.
Phase
II – Emergence of Social Media
With
the spread of internet and social networking, Modi found a medium to connect
directly and to satiate people’s curiosity bypassing mainstream media. Modi has
enormous presence on the
internet. Unlike his opponents,
he has the oratory-skills to connect with the intellectuals as well as the
masses and shares all of his speeches on his youtube-channel. A fairly
significant section of people, especially the youth, consists of those who do
not identify with the camp of religious hardliners and who cannot tolerate
misgovernance, inefficiency and rampant corruption. Modi had grasped this voter
dilemma long back. For past several years, he has been trying hard to reach
out. He talks about governance, economy, technology, environment and
developmental issues. It is possible that many of those who had presumed Modi
to be a demon saw his human side and bought-in his development centric politics,
which is very rare in India. Modi is yet to find a political opponent who
presents counter narrative of the developmental vision for India.
Phase
III – Acquitted by the Court of Law
In
2013, Ahmedabad Metropolitan Magistrate gave a clean chit to Modi based on the
report submitted by the independent inquiry supervised by the Supreme Court.
The inquiry has not found
prosecutable evidence against him. This development may not have affected
opinion of Modi-supporters or his critics. However, a large number of
potentially neutral voters now had no concrete rationale for blaming riots on
Modi.
Today
pro-Modi camp is massively big. It covers not only Hindu hardliners, but also liberals
who buy-in Modi’s claims of administrative acumen. Modi has a huge following
among the youth, possibly across religious lines. So far, he has maintained a
fine balance in keeping his right-wing followers and liberal young fans under
the same umbrella. However, this balancing-act may get more difficult if the
hardliners push their agenda publicly. Educated youth may find it difficult to
sit in the same camp with religious hardliners, who tend to impose their
world-view on others. Nonetheless, it is difficult to say if the hardliners are
destroying Modi’s potential vote bank of liberal youth across religious lines. In
total, the fault lines within the pro-Modi camp is the only big threat which
can shatter Modi’s plan.
Now
that there is a real possibility that Modi will be the next prime minister of
India, most of the anti-Modi liberals and leftists are crying foul. One wonders
what they were doing when their colleagues were presenting anti-Modi propaganda,
and not complete factual picture, on the mainstream media for more than a
decade. Did they not anticipate what the consequences would be if their story
did not stand the test of time? Anti-Modi camp is shrinking and there is no
justification provided for the presentation of unidimensional one-sided picture
with selective facts for so long. Religious bigotry and rioting is a social
malice across India. Why has there been a sustained campaign against only one
politician? Unfortunately, some of the media houses and senior reporters have shamelessly
changed sides to orient themselves with the winds of change.
In
all this, genuine critics of Modi’s politics and governance have emerged as the
biggest losers. Any criticism of Modi or his administration is labeled as a
Congressi-propaganda by rapidly expanding pro-Modi camp. The political
discourse breaks down right away as there is a predetermined position and no
openness to consider the counter narrative.
I welcome your comments...
