21st Century: Future World Power(s)

I am not an astrologer. However, in this article I shall try to sketch what kind of world we will have by the end of this century based on my studies, observations and personal experiences. We all know the developed economies (mainly western countries) are having a very humble growth-rates (or stagnant growth in many cases), whereas the developing countries are having more or less better growth rates. The rise of the rest of the world (excluding western) is led by China, India, Brazil & Russia (i.e., BRIC nations). The richest country the USA, having GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of almost $15 Trillion, growing at about 2-3% a year is likely to be overtaken by China, (having GDP of about $5 Trillion) which is growing at almost 10% a year. Needless to say that everything comes down to the economy of a country, while assessing its power and global influence (if you have money, then only you can have a strong military, scientific advancement, industrialization & productivity, globally competitive human resource and so on). With this background information, let’s explore various view points:

Conservative American View: If America fails to sustain its SUPER POWER status, we are heading towards a catastrophe. If America is weakened, the world will be a barbaric place to live in, mainly because, the Americans will not be able to provide security to various nations, and will not be able to supply aid to poor nations. For example what about American presence in South East Asia to safe guard Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Philippines etc? What about Middle-East? Who is going to handle constant frictions between the Sunnis (everywhere except Iran) & Shies (mainly Iran), and above all, between Arabs & Israelis? Who will support the poor war torn nations of Africa and Asia? In general, the whole world order will be threatened, if America loses its power. There is no other country to fit into its shoe. The Chinese never speak up and have no legitimacy on moral issues, and fundamentally there is nothing like human rights in a communist state. America’s fall will be a moral collapse of the world.

Conservative Chinese View (also called pragmatic view in China): For the past 2-3 hundred years, the world has been governed on the conditions suitable to the west. However, now the west should be prepared to obey, rather than dictating its terms. The western ideas of democracy, capitalist-society and universal human rights have absolutely nothing to do with China. Rights and laws are subjective, depending on the social structure of a country, which can vary country to country. Every country/society should find its own solutions. Chinese government is to secure interests of the people of China, and all other governments should do the same for their people. The west has no right to tell others what they should do; let others figure out what is to be done. Even when there is genocide in some distant country, China should not intervene. Let those people find their solutions; and let time take its own course as it has taken to bring us all to this date. China will continue to remain a communist country and Chinese government will continue to secure interests of the people of China only. The west should adjust to this; else China will fight its terms out when needed.

The liberal thinkers around the world (including in US, & China): We are going to have a world that is multi polar. There will be no one super power country, but we shall have many countries with influential power. America will lose “Super Power” status, but it will not be its fall, rather it will be the rise of the rest (as Fareed Zakaria argues all the time). It will be something like the Britain, who lost its Super Power status by ’40s, but it has remained an influential global player even today.

Moreover, America still has great fuel to remain globally competent for a longer duration:

· Infrastructure and institutions for future technologies & industries like no other country has (i.e., Biotechnology, nanotechnology etc)

· World class universities & research labs (needless to mention, 37 of top 50 universities of the world are American)

· Attracts highly skilled immigrants (unlike any other developed country, America is growing younger as the population is on rise)

· It houses most of the global companies, most of the fortune 500s, and keeps generating newer multinationals

· And of course, from hip-hop to Harvard, from Hollywood to Gates foundation, its soft power is probably influencing the whole world like no other nation is in position of doing so.

My take: Thus, one great thing would be that the world would be truly democratic in nature. It is very ironic that the country which believes in democracy (USA) is trying to avoid sharing of power, while the country which believes in having only one party (China) is advocating for a multi-polar world, where power is shared between many. Nonetheless, we will not just have two great powers, but many indeed. Though India’s GDP is currently at 10^th position (about $1.5 Trillion), it is expected to grow faster than China, mainly because of its economic design and its demography. Let me explain this:

· China is attracting huge foreign direct investments (FDIs). In one month it attracts FDIs that India attracts in one year. Now, this is great for faster growth, but it is risky and you are dependent on foreigners to pump in money. At some point if FDIs are low or if people book profit and walk out of your country, it may surely hurt your growth rate.

· China’s one child per family program is great for population control, but it will make it grow old, whereas India will be one of the youngest countries of the world (challenge for India to take advantage of this unintended opportunity). This year UN has come out with a report that pointed out that China is going to have a demographic collapse over the next 25 years. It is going to lose 400 million people.

Of course, this is not a race. There is no gold medal for a country with the highest GDP or growth rates. After all, the quality of life of the individuals of a country matters, and both the countries will be able to do it best by cooperation with each other and the rest of the world. I was very glad when India simply declined the Bush administration’s tacit offer of obtaining help from America in return of taking stands against China (in short, Americans wanted India as a counter power to China). India does not have to choose between US or China; rather it should have deep warm ties with not only US & China, but with every other nation of the planet. Wellbeing of its people should be the only goal for India.

Moreover, both India & China will be closely followed by Brazil, Russia, South Africa, and Mexico and so on. The economic rise of the world would mean that the global poverty would fall below 15% by 2015 (it was 40% in 1981).

All nations will be required to act responsibly. Things that could hurt all sorts of projections are wars, social (and political) instability, scarcity of resources and environmental disasters. These constraints can be overcome only through cooperation and mutual respect. Hopefully, there will be no one country with all mussel power that threatens others.

What kind of India I wish: I think India should never become a hard Super-Power that suffocates the rest of the world, expands its boundaries and dictates its terms in arrogant manner. However, India must generate global citizens, who lead the world through education, mutual respect and sustainable development. India has a great potential of becoming a role model for the developing world, and it must realize its Soft-Super Power.

I welcome your comments....

Image Courtesy: http://www.paggu.com/business/us-india-and-china-relations/

Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when (c) TED conferences

Some great web links on this topic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2JUHnrb14U&feature=player_embedded (Eric video on Chinese perspective)

http://www.newsweek.com/2008/05/03/the-rise-of-the-rest.html (Fareed article on Rise of the rest)

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/05/why-the-21st-century-will-not-belong-to-china/ (Fareed article on 'why 21^st century will not belong to China')

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ1O9NlnugE&feature=related (Rise of India video)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jDbdtiJRVg&feature=related (Rise of China video)

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/266 (Freedman on World is flat at MIT)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXdwsYtlzX4 (CCTV video 'China & India friends or foes)

Book: Zakaria, F. (2009). The post American world. W. W. Nortan & Company, USA.

Copy-paste Culture: Challenges for Creative Intellectuals in India

The last article of this blog, Why Bhaag DK Bose makes Complete Sense, was stolen first by Bollywoodhungama.com and then by hundreds of bollywood news splogs. At first, this infuriated me. But as I explored this mishap in broader contexts, things started making sense to me. Here is the explanation for – why violation of intellectual-rights is so prevalent in India and what effect does it generate on creative intellectuals (of course, this can be generalized over other developing nations as well).

In Indian society, masks are way more valued than creative minds. To make my point clear, I’d like you to have a look at various fields. People go mad after actors, who simply follow instructions; but story & script writers, who create brilliant stories, visualize their effects on masses and develop characters that touch our hearts, go unnoticed. Singers, who do same job as any instrument players, get standing ovations, while we hardly care about the music-composures, who come up with mind-blowing tunes that perturb millions of hearts. Our society over-appreciates what it sees, and fails to value the major contributions of people behind the scene. This shows lack of critical thinking ability of our masses. All the name, fame and money follow the mask, and not the mind. This gives a clear message – if you wish to be successful, get seen-heard and noticed. It does not matter where you get things (ideas) from, but be the first person to bring those ideas to the masses. Importance is given to the one who brings new things to masses, and not to the one who creates new things. And with money and power the big fish can always hide its knowledge-source and earn all credits.

Such social scenario is very discouraging for creative intellectuals (CI), if they are unable to reach out to the masses. Eventually, they may feel – “why should I put in so much of efforts, when others are beneficiary of it, and not I?” They might explore some of the following routes:

• Succumb to the copy-paste culture: Giving up sounds very detested option in theory, but it is always an obvious path taken by the majority of people. A creative intellectual may begin applying all his/her creativity in finding newer ways of copying and hiding sources. After all, even if one finds no gain in money or fame, this option reduces cognitive labour. In short, lesser headache for same (or possibly more) rewards.
• Stop sharing: Some CIs may simply stop sharing their creations and innovations with the society. “People have no intellect to understand and appreciate my contribution. I will keep my work undisclosed and wait for a favourable time. And if that time never comes, my creation will die with me but I won’t let big fishes take credit for my work” – this can be their response to the society’s negligence.
• In India, even in schools you will find this trend. Very few students would do their assignments independently. The rest of the class would either get things done with the help of parents/tutors or copy from digests/guide-books or from the notebooks of their colleagues. Now, the students, who have done work independently, would be very reluctant in sharing their work with their class-friends. This is because, like our society, the teacher focuses on whether things are done (or not done) and not on how things are done. The result is highlighted and not the process. I have complete empathy towards those very few CIs in our classrooms.
• Find a place where CIs see appreciation: ‘Get settled in a place/country where your contribution is appreciated’- this is one of the biggest reasons why many CIs settle-down in developed countries. No country can afford to lose its top intellectuals.

All three scenarios mentioned above are nightmare for not just CIs, but for the whole society. Especially, when the world is moving rapidly towards a ‘knowledge economy’ era, a developing country like India needs to begin valuing minds. Today, India needs an intellectual revolution. I have following suggestions:

• Value for intellectual-rights must be nurtured in children at homes and schools. Programmes/courses should be designed such that creativity is encouraged in students. Every new idea should be valued and student who generates idea should be encouraged in schools. Students should be trained to write essays with references.
• Government and civil society should join hands to run campaign for spreading awareness about intellectual property rights, privacy rights and for inculcating respect for others’ intellectual properties in masses.
• Clear cut procedures should be available for reporting complaints about copy-rights violations at every level. Needless to mention, appropriate actions must be taken without delay.
• The society needs to realize its greatest assets, Creative Intellectuals; and must revere their contributions.
• Lastly, CIs themselves must raise their voice and be more assertive for securing intellectual-rights. After all only they can carve their unique place in the Indian society.

I welcome your comments....

Image courtesy: UNSW from: http://techpp.com/2009/07/06/how-to-fight-plagisarism-on-wordpresscom/

Why Bhaag DK Bose makes complete sense…

(This is an original article. Many Bollywood news websites, including that of Bollywood Hungama News Network, have pasted this article on their page without permission or proper credits. I condemn such violation of my copyrights. I highly appreciate Ahmedabad Mirror for raising up this issue: http://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/article/3/20110607201106070248346861642e50f/City-blogger-gets-splogged-.html - Kathan Shukla, Blogger)

Many are surprised by the lyrics of the song ‘Bhaag DK Bose’. There have been many Indian songs containing explicit slangs, but they failed to enter into the mainstream. But, this particular song is from the movie Delhi Belly of Aamir Khan Production, which is undoubtedly one of the most successful production houses in India. Quite obviously, the conservatives will find it very hard to tolerate this song being played in their living rooms. They would consider it outrageous, anti-social, and vulgar; and would do everything possible they could to isolate their children (age does not matter) from such bad media influence.

However, the song has a unique feature that touches the youth. The crux of the success of the song lies in the philosophy of its genre, the Punk Rock. This genre of music symbolizes the rebellious nature of individuals, especially of youth. It is an expression of free thinkers, who challenge the traditional way of thinking, behaving and living. People who create such music simply cannot accept everything as it is. They hate all those who try to take decisions on their behalf – this may include family members, teachers, bosses, big corporate houses, and of course, the governments & politicians. They simply raise a question – “who the hell are you to take decisions for me?” These iconoclasts cannot tolerate monopolies, privileged classes or elite groups; and they simply cannot remain silent against structural/systematic injustice. They speak out loudly– “F**k your elitism, blind-traditions and your monopolies. I reject you… You can neither stop me nor shut me off”.

Coming back to the song ‘Bhaag DK Bose’, the traditional view in the Indian culture is - 'one should fight against all odds, no matter how big a challenge is. Consider life-problems as tests given by the god; and have faith in god, who will make everything right. This will help you suffer all hardships patiently'. The song rejects this view. It responds- 'when you are detested and underestimated by the family, when you are surrounded by misfortunes, when girlfriend (or boyfriend) and money are too hard to get, and when the crescendo of tragedies is inundating you, what’s wrong in running away? Just run away - you DK Bose*. Life isn’t worth fighting battles that the society wants you to fight. That will only create tension and frustration in you. Just run away from all those battles and remain a free Kabootar (dove)'.

Without a doubt the youth has a lot to identify with this song. Youngsters live amidst significant uncertainties and social pressure. They have a lot many people telling them what to do and what not to. Then there is uncertainty of having a bright career, good life partner and a high socio-economic status. And above all, they find a cut-throat competition in almost every aspect of life, whether it is admissions, job, or business or even life-partner. Such a song and music were always on the cards in the Indian cinema; it was only a matter of time. Whether you agree with the ideas presented by the song is a different story, but it surely will polarize the public opinion. And we should fasten our seat-belts - as more of such songs will surely follow if this movie succeeds.

*DK Bose makes sense in Hindi when you put Bose before DK.

I welcome your comments....